Parliamentary discipline of individual lawmakers in relation to their electoral result and their place on the electoral list

The project is the first attempt in Poland to thoroughly analyze the basic factors that influence the Polish Sejm lawmakers' loyalty towards their parliamentary groups during the last four terms.

There are two main factors which influence the election of the Polish Sejm member: individual popularity and the place on the electoral list. While the former is largely related to the candidate's individual efforts (and the resources he has at his disposal), the latter depends on his position in the party. The systems of nominating candidates in main Polish political parties differ in their level of centralization, and, consequently, in the degree of candidates' dependence on regional and central authorities. Although in more centralized parties candidates are more reliant upon their loyalty towards the party (or faction), there are also many cases of spectacular "outsiders" who enter the parliament from unfavorable positions on such parties' lists. At the same time, differences in the discipline of individual members of the Sejm can be observed (with their discipline defined as the percentage of conformity between their votes and the votes of the majority of the group).

Bearing in mind the above, the following hypotheses about the Polish Sejm members are tested in the project:

  1. The lawmaker's loyalty (his discipline index) is lower:
    1. among lawmakers of a party with a decentralized nomination system – compared with the mean loyalty of members of a party with a more centralized nomination system;
    2. among "outsider" lawmakers (high number of votes despite a low place on the electoral list) of a party with a centralized system – compared with a mean loyalty of lawmakers from this party;
  2. Lawmakers from centralized parties who are regularly elected with a low number of votes from a favorable place on the list are more loyal than the average.
  3. Lawmakers from centralized parties elected with a low number of votes from a favorable place on the list whose loyalty was (much) lower than average during the term X are placed lower on the electoral list at the next election, or are not nominated at all.